I don't see why it would fail if its not marketable to non-technical people. Being a competent computer user is not really even that rare anymore. Even still, non-technical users will probably not buy it for its ability to read business documents, check email, or even care much about all of these IP issues. They will buy it for what its marketed as; namely, a way to acquire and view amazon content, periodicals, and blogs without buying hard copies or relying on some secondary network connection. My mother for instance, wouldn't buy a clock radio because its barely documented ability to intercept the audio of broadcast TV stations, so there would be no reason for her to complain about how easy or hard it is to use that functionality.

The concerns presented about IP and book trading and all that other mess are concerns that technically minded people have, not what little old ladies in book clubs have. You guys are projecting. None of your concerns about viewable content are concerns that people who cant figure out how to use a document converter, or plug in a usb device, will likely have. You cannot lump all these things together, and then treat them like real problems that a whole lot of individual users are going to have, because they are concerns of two mutually exclusive groups; people who know how to set the time on their VCR, and people who don't.

At most, the likely concerns they would have, are the initial cost of the device, the long ass line they will have to wait in to get their hands on one, and the inability to find some book they want that amazon hasn't gotten around to providing via the kindle store.

For the technically minded people who want more control over their content usage, they can convert and upload their own content. For little old ladies and other non-vcr time setting folks, IP issues are all but invisible, and price and content availability are annoying, but not deal breakers.

I dont think any of the fees are hard to understand really. I mean, I would no more go and buy all of the books i already own through the kindle store, than i would subscribe to absolutely periodical and blog i read through the kindle store. What i do, is buy the books i cannot do without, and subscribe to the content that is most frequently updated. I think the blog subscription fee idea is very smart on their part, and when compared to the amount of blogs i think most people will hold active longterm subscriptions to through their service, its a great way for them to pull that much more capital, without totally breaking their customers.

I do not see getting what i want on my kindle as being a big problem, as the formats that are not directly supported by amazons conversion stuff, are almost all convertible with 3rd party software to the formats that are.

The browser sucks, but if you put forth the effort, you can make just about all unparseble content viewable by means of mobile browser portals. Its all a little bit hackey, but these are things i could not possibly expect amazon to make easy for everyone, and still expect to make money off of this endeavor. They have not put much effort into making them impossible, which is where i draw a good bit of my comfort in having purchased this device from them. I can get the device to do most of what i want it to, that amazon would probably rather me not get it to do, with only a little extra effort.

I do however think the huge upfront cost, in proportion to my assumption of its production cost, to be pretty ridiculous. I also do not understand why the device has been scarcified. Maybe they are trying to limit its adoption until they are positive that they will continue supporting it. It certainly doesnt help them pay for the EVDO, nor does it help them reduce the cost of the device so that they can continue doing so without the benefit of the initial hype associated with the kindle. The simple fact that most discussion of it both began and ended last November has me a little worried about my purchase, but seeing as few people have really been able to get their hands on one since then, I can see why.

All in all i think, that if amazon continues to grow the content available, and eventually starts producing enough of these things to meet the demand for them, that i will have made a good investment. It hasn't paid off yet, but if the conditions above are met, it probably will very soon.