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M1EK

Website: http://mdahmus.monkeysystems.com/blog/

Is this the end of cheap food?

January 21, 2008 1:52pm

Yes to Joe.

Even in the Chilean fruit example, much less than 100% of the retail cost is due to crude oil (or even fuel in general). Something far south of 50% even in the worst case scenario - if we just assume 50% of that cost was oil, then quadrupling the cost of oil means the cost of the fruit goes up about 2x. Most people never get past the illogic of "oil goes up by 4 times, so everything else gets 4 times as expensive too".

Is this the end of cheap food?

January 21, 2008 12:53pm

"$100 a barrel means food that is four-times as expensive to plant, irrigate, harvest and transport as it was six years ago"

Assuming they're using $25/barrel six years ago, the real conclusion to draw is that mathematics and critical thinking are in short supply.

Unless 100% (the entire) cost of planting, irrigating, harvesting, and transporting is fuel (and not just refined fuel - we're talking crude oil), a 4x increase in crude oil would result in nothing remotely close to a 4x increase in any of those costs.

This gets so tiresome - like the idiots who say that when oil is twice as expensive as it is now, a loaf of bread will also be twice as expensive. Know what the only thing is that will be twice as expensive? OIL.

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